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Eric Schmidt on the Future of War at Milken Global Conference 2025: "No More Soldiers, Only Software"

At the forefront of AI and defense innovation, Eric Schmidt outlines a future battlefield dominated by drones, automation, and real-time warfare intelligence. In a riveting conversation at the Milken Institute Global Conference 2025, held in Los Angeles from May 4–7, the former Google CEO offered a sobering and deeply informed analysis of modern warfare, with a particular focus on Ukraine. The discussion, led by Rick Newman of Yahoo Finance, provided a rare glimpse into how technology—especially artificial intelligence and drones—is redefining combat in real time.

Photo: Milken Institute

Ukraine: The World’s Most Advanced War Laboratory

Eric Schmidt, who has spent significant time in Ukraine and advises the Pentagon, characterized the war as both tragic and transformational. He described Ukraine as “the most advanced laboratory for modern warfare in the world,” where the traditional symbols of military might—tanks, fighter jets, and naval forces—are being rapidly rendered obsolete. In their place: millions of drones, AI-guided targeting systems, and decentralized innovation networks operating at Silicon Valley speed.

Where Ukraine lacks an air force or a navy, it has responded with ingenuity. Drone swarms now function as both air force and artillery, and improvised marine drones have decimated parts of the Russian Black Sea fleet. A staggering figure stood out: Ukraine aims to build 10 million drones in 2024, many of them FPVs (first-person view), with ever-increasing sophistication.

The End of the Human-on-the-Battlefield Era

Eric Schmidt envisions a future where warfare is largely robotic and remote—conducted by autonomous systems controlled from far-off cities, while human commanders sip coffee and monitor screens. “The logic of everything that we in our military do just doesn’t make any sense,” he declared, calling for the U.S. to abandon its reliance on manned fighter jets and outdated weapons systems.

This shift is more than tactical; it’s structural. The “OODA Loop” (observe, orient, decide, act) that has guided military operations for decades is being compressed. In Ukraine, Schmidt explained, the time between being spotted by a drone and being attacked is under three minutes. Soon, AI-powered systems will collapse that loop into mere seconds—too fast for human reflexes to matter.

AI, Innovation, and the Procurement Gap

Perhaps the most urgent warning Eric Schmidt issued was directed at the U.S. defense establishment. While American start-ups are racing ahead with cutting-edge military tech, he said, the Pentagon’s 16-year procurement cycles are lethargic by comparison. He likened the Department of Defense to a “bad 1980s corporation”—bloated, risk-averse, and unable to retain the software talent essential for modern combat systems.

“Innovation in Ukraine occurs in three-to-six-week cycles,” he said. “If there’s a Ukrainian innovation, it’s adopted by the Russians within six weeks.” By contrast, U.S. systems bog down in years of red tape, bidding wars, and lawsuits.

Deterrence Through Unpredictability

Ironically, Eric Schmidt believes that the unpredictability introduced by AI-enhanced warfare might make nations more hesitant to go to war. If both sides have a million drones making split-second decisions through reinforcement learning, the outcomes become wildly uncertain. “The average human would be so scared of what would happen,” Schmidt speculated, that it could serve as a powerful deterrent.

A Call to Action

In closing, Eric Schmidt delivered a blunt message to American policymakers: study this war. Stop funding legacy platforms. Invest in robotic systems, attritable drones, and autonomous networks. The world has entered a new era of conflict, and the United States must adapt or risk falling behind.

“There’s plenty of money for national security,” he said. “It needs to go to the right places.”

The speech painted a chilling yet insightful picture: future wars will not be won by who has more tanks or missiles, but by who adapts faster—who codes faster, networks smarter, and integrates AI more effectively. As Schmidt put it, “real war is terrifying—and it’s changing everything.”